The independent panels brought under the umbrella of CFR has recommended that the US withdraw from Afghanistan--if the current policy fails, and it recommends that the US withdraw if the current policy succeeds.
We have always maintained that the US will begin its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2011. We have also maintained that as the withdrawal begins, the 150,000 or so mercenaries will be the first to flee. Their funds cut off the Balckwater/Xe and others will simply disappear rapidly. Then as the US begins its withdrawal, it will reach a tipping point rapidly. It will be impossible to sustained operations with 100,000 troops. Once the tipping point is reached, the withdrawal will not wati for the magical date of 2014--the end date will be moved up. The occupation of Afghanistan could end as early as 2012 or 2013.
- US experts have called for President Barack Obama to consider narrowing the mission in Afghanistan unless there is progress, and warn that success is impossible without a shift by Pakistan.
- An independent task force at the Council on Foreign Relations said on Friday the Obama administration will need to take hard decisions after it conducts its own review of war strategy next month.
- "If progress is being made, the United States should be able to draw down its forces starting in July 2011, based on conditions on the ground," it said, supporting the timeline set last year by Obama.
Advertisement: Story continues below . - "However, if US efforts are not working, a more significant drawdown to a narrower mission that emphasises counterterror objectives with fewer US forces will be warranted," it said.
- Under such a plan, some 10,000 to 20,000 US troops led by Special Operations Forces would fight militants - a sharp drop from the 100,000 now deployed. But it warned of major risks, including a greater chance Afghanistan would plunge into civil war. AFP
VoA News: An independent panel is urging U.S. President Barack Obama to sharply curtail the military’s mission in Afghanistan if there are no signs of progress.
A task force created by the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington-based research group, issued a report Friday saying that the current approach to Afghanistan is at a critical point.
The report says the outcome of the 9-year Afghan war remains “uncertain” and that militants present a direct threat to the U.S. and its allies.
The 25-member panel is urging Mr. Obama to consider the high costs of the mission as it determines whether its efforts have been successful.
The Obama administration will conduct a thorough review of its Afghan war strategy next month. The independent panel says if progress is being made, the administration can proceed with its stated goal of withdrawing forces beginning in July 2011. But panel members say if U.S. efforts are not working, a more significant drawdown will be warranted.
But Armitage emphasized that Obama needs to have a "very deep, clear-eyed review of the situation," and that if "real progress is not deemed to have been made, a majority of us suggest that we change the mission to a much different mission, one of counterterror and continued training of the Afghan National Security Forces." more by Richard Armitage
Mr. Obama decided last year to increase the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan by 30,000 [short of the General's Request] 100,000 to battle Taliban and al-Qaida forces, while training Afghan security forces.
The administration has begun to suggest it is backing away from the July 2011 withdrawal date, instead stressing the goal of fully handing over control to Afghan security forces by 2014.
The task force also gave recommendations on Pakistan, suggesting the U.S. expand military ties and deepen economic cooperation following the devastating July floods. The report says the U.S. should continue to warn Pakistan that bilateral relations hinge on the government’s action against internal militant groups.
- The study warned that frontline partner Pakistan "has not made a decisive break with all militants", with some security elements backing extremists that target Afghanistan and historic rival India.
- "One of the benefits of (a smaller mission in Afghanistan) is that we would actually be less dependent on Pakistan because our logistics needs would be smaller," Armitage said as he presented the report.
- "To be clear, we cannot be successful in Afghanistan if we can't get a changed attitude in Pakistan," said Armitage, a key US interlocutor with Pakistan following the September 11, 2001 attacks.
Any conversation with Richard Armitage on Pakistan always comes with threats. The CFR reports also comes with the usual vintage Armitage bluster that doesn't hold water--and he knows it. The consequences of these threats are colossal and no one can contemplate the worst case scenario.
Related articles
- 2014: What happens in Afghanistan afterwards? (rupeenews.com)
- Task force warns Obama over high cost of Aghan war (capitolhillblue.com)
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